電池「都市鉱山」による資源ポテンシャルと環境便益のマッピング（令和 8年度）

Mapping resource potential and environmental benefit from extracting battery “urban mines”

This study treats used traction batteries and stationary storage batteries as "urban mines" and conducts a quantitative assessment integrating material flow analysis based on urban metabolism theory, life-cycle assessment, and a multi-regional input-output model. In addition to elucidating the dynamics of battery accumulation and disposal, as well as the recoverable quantities of critical metals, the study presents resource management strategies that help mitigate resource supply risks and realize a decarbonized, circular society, based on future scenario analyses that consider improvements to recovery systems and raw material supply chains.

• 主たるもの：応用科学研究
• 従たるもの：政策研究

This study aims to propose resource management strategies to mitigate resource supply risks and realize a decarbonized, circular society. To achieve this, the study addresses two tasks: analyzing the dynamics of resource formation and accumulation and evaluating the energy-metal nexus.

[Task 1] Quantifying the dynamics of formation and accumulation and the resource supply potential of "urban mines" in motive and stationary batteries
This task quantifies—in terms of both time and space—the formation and accumulation mechanisms and the potential supply volumes of critical metal resources (e.g., Li, Co, Ni, Cu, graphite, and electrolytes) contained in used motive batteries (from vehicles) and stationary storage batteries (from solar and wind power storage and output regulation systems). The study covers both currently mainstream battery types and those with potential for future development and adoption (such as ternary lithium-ion batteries and all-solid-state lithium batteries). Data will be collected from sources such as MarkLines, IEA World Energy Statistics, and Balances.
Defining the quantity of metal resources in batteries as "material content per unit battery × number of retired batteries," a "twin model" will be constructed by integrating a layered-structure model with a population-balance model. The former will be used to compile a database of material content at the cell, module, and pack levels, while the latter will estimate retirement volumes and conduct uncertainty analysis for the period from 1990 to 2050 (Lead: HE Ziyan). Based on these results, a dynamic material flow analysis (dynamic MFA) incorporating recovery systems will be conducted to quantify circularity rates, metal self-sufficiency rates, and the effects of alleviating supply pressure under multiple future scenarios.