Example Research Results
1.Conceptual illustration of national-scale future scenarios in Japan
PANCES conducted the development of national-scale future scenarios for exploring potential changes in natural capital and ecosystem services, as well as human well-being, up to 2050 using key direct and indirect drivers including climate change, depopulation, and super-aging, as well as globalization and technological innovation. The Delphi method was employed to generate key drivers that determine different future pathways.
Based on the two drivers for scenario axes identified by the Delphi survey and extensive discussion with project members and policy makers, four future scenarios are created, ‘Natural capital-based compact society’, ‘Natural capital-based dispersed society’, ‘Produced capital-based compact society’, and ‘Produced capital-based dispersed society’, respectively, in addition to the business-as-usual scenario. The project also developed the graphical illustration of four scenarios.
O. Saito (Theme 1)
O. Saito, C. Kamiyama, S. Hashimoto, T. Matsui, K. Shoyama, K. Kabaya, T. Uetake, H. Taki, Y. Ishikawa, K. Matsushita, F. Yamane, J. Hori, T. Ariga, K.Takeuchi (2019) Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services. Sustainability Science, 14-1, p.5-21.
2.Projection of the change in land use by scenario
Land-use scenarios and prediction models were developed following the four future scenarios (Natural capital-based compact society scenario (NC); Natural capital-based dispersed society scenario (ND); Produced capital-based compact society scenario (PC); and Produced capital-based dispersed society (PD)). The future projections for the year 2050 for each scenario was based on the land use land cover data sets generated by using vegetation data.
The projections mapped the gain and loss for each type of land-use nationwide at 500m spatial scale. The changes in the future land use types were found different depending on the scenarios.
Shoyama (subtheme 1-2)
K. Shoyama, T. Matsui, S. Hashimoto, K. Kabaya, A. Oono, O. Saito (2019) Development of land use scenarios using vegetation inventories in Japan, Sustainability Science, 14(1): 39-52.
3.Analysis of the change in ecosystem services based on future scenarios (case study in Sado)
Six scenarios were drawn up in cooperation with people in Sado participating workshops. Each scenario was characterized by the two aspects, the speed of population decline and the emphasized industries. Scenario analysis was conducted based on the scenarios to investigate the land use and ecosystem services (food production, carbon fixation, water purification, and provision of habitats).
For the city as a whole, the values of the ecosystem services became higher in the scenario emphasizing agriculture, and they tended to become lower as the population was declining. The analysis confirmed that environmentally conscious agriculture and forestry management help increase the value of agricultural production and promote the growth of forest.
Kabaya (subtheme 1-1)
4.Future projection of supply services of agricultural products by scenario analysis
By combining the production volume data of paddy rice and spinach (1993?2015), climate conditions (1993?2015), the data of landuse in 1998, and the data of population distribution in 2010, prediction models were developed to predict the provisioning services of paddy rice and spinach. Using the resultant models, the change in the provisioning services from 2010 to 2050 and the factors contributing the changes were predicted for each scenario by applying climatic conditions, landuse, and population distribution in 2010 and future scenarios (Business as usual (BAU); Natural capital-based compact society; Natural capital-based dispersed society; Produced capital-based compact society; Produced capital-based dispersed society) to the model.
All the scenarios showed a decrease in rice provisioning service nationwide, and the main factor of the decrease was predicted to be the loss of rice fields. The artificial capital scenarios, especially, showed a significant decrease. Measures to tackle problems of abandoned agricultural land were considered to be necessary. On the other hand, increase in spinach provisioning service was predicted nationwide for most of the scenarios other than the BAU and Produced capital-based dispersed society scenarios.
Michio Oguro (subtheme 2-2)
unpublished results.The climate data used for the analyses were produced using [AMeDAS climate mesh production program Ver. 5.2] by The National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO).
5.Watershed conservation and ecosystem service predictions
The connection of forests, rivers, seas, and countryside was expressed in the context of such natural capitals and ecosystem services as carbon sequestration, nutrient cycle, and water purification functions. A model was structured to predict the ecosystem services in the Eastern Hokkaido based on the land use data. Mode predictions were performed under the four future scenarios.
The predictions showed different amounts of nutrient supply depending on the four different land use scenarios in the future. It suggested the importance for regional stakeholders to consider future scenarios based on those quantitative predictions.
Hideaki Shibata and Takahiro Inoue (subtheme 2-4)
6.Prediction of climate change impact on the species diversity of kelps in northern Japan
The present study aimed to predict future shifts in major kelp species in northern Japan under different climate change scenarios. From a database of cold temperate kelp species in Japan, we estimate the distribution of 11 kelp species that inhabit the waters around northern Japan. Distributions of the past (1980s) and the future (2040s and 2090s) were estimated using a species distribution model.
A forecast of shifts in distributions based on different IPCC scenarios showed that kelp species diversity in Japan would significantly decrease. By the 2090s, their habitat range overall was estimated to decline to 30-51% of that of the 1980s with moderate warming (RCP 4.5) and to 0-25% with severe warming (RCP 8.5). The model predicted that 6 of 11 cold temperate kelp species may become extinct around Japan by the 2090s (RCP 8.5).
K. Sudo, K. Watanabe, N. Yotsukura, M. Nakaoka (2019) Predictions of kelp distribution shifts along the northern coast of Japan, Ecological Research (early view), DOI: 10.1111/1440-1703.12053.
7.Future prediction of recreational values of beaches
This study integrates mobile phone network data into a traditional economic valuation approach to reveal the current nationwide human welfare of coastal recreation at Japanese beaches, and to project the change in value based on four climate change scenarios.
On a national scale, the value loss rates are substantially larger than the physical loss rate under the climate change scenarios, which implies that only the existing physical evaluations are insufficient to support policymaking.
The geographical insights demonstrate regional differences in recreational values: most southern beaches with larger current values would disappear while the current small values of the northern beaches would remain relatively the same. These changes imply that the ranks of the beaches based on economic values enable policymakers to discuss management priorities under climate change.
Kubo (subtheme 3-3)
T. Kubo,S. Uryu,H. Yamano,T. Tsuge,T. Yamakita,Y. Shirayama (2020) Mobile phone network data reveal nationwide economic value of coastal tourism under climate change, Tourism Management, 77, DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2019.104010
Presentation slides on the 9th Ecosystem Services Partnership(ESP) 2017 by PANCES members.
・T5-Session: Future Scenarios and Modelling of Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services
・Exploring alternative futures of the social-ecological production landscapes
・A Development of Future Scenario Simulation System of Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services on LANDIS-II
・Modelling provisioning services and their relationship with socioecological factors in Japan
・Modelling and Mapping Recreational Ecosystem Services Using Multi-Scale Natural and Social Metrics in Japan