Reproducing complex simulations of economic impacts of climate change with lower-cost emulators

Reproducing complex simulations of economic impacts of climate change with lower-cost emulators
Authors: Takakura J., Fujimori S., Takahashi K., Hanasaki N., Hasegawa T., Hirabayashi Y., Honda Y., Iizumi T., Park C., Tamura M., Hijioka Y.
Year: 2021
Journal: Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 3121-3140

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climate change, economic impact, emulation, statistical machine learning

Process-based models are powerful tools for simulating the economic impacts of climate change, but they are computationally expensive. In order to project climate-change impacts under various scenarios, produce probabilistic ensembles, conduct online coupled simulations, or explore pathways by numerical optimization, the computational and implementation cost of economic impact calculations should be reduced. To do so, in this study, we developed various emulators that mimic the behaviours of simulation models, namely economic models coupled with bio/physical-process-based impact models, by statistical regression techniques. Their performance was evaluated for multiple sectors and regions. Among the tested emulators, those composed of artificial neural networks, which can incorporate non-linearities and interactions between variables, performed better particularly when finer input variables were available. Although simple functional forms were effective for approximating general tendencies, complex emulators are necessary if the focus is regional or sectoral heterogeneity. Since the computational cost of the developed emulators is sufficiently small, they could be used to explore future scenarios related to climate-change policies. The findings of this study could also help researchers design their own emulators in different situations.

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