Targeting the whole of Japan, to develop and improve an integrated assessment model in order to assess levels of impacts and effects of adaptation measures according to different climate stabilization levels and adaptation policies. Moreover, in collaboration with Theme 1(2)-(9) as well as Theme 2, to develop a simplified climate change impact estimation tool for use at the prefectural and municipal levels. Further, to support the systematization and development of methods related to climate and socioeconomic scenarios that allow climate change impacts and effects of adaptation measures to be assessed in a form that makes comparison and synthesis of each theme possible.

To develop a downscaling assessment system (downscaler) that will allow policymakers, technical staff, and researchers to independently make local climate change projections and assessments (at the prefectural and municipal levels). The ultimate aim is to contribute to local impact assessments by strengthening cooperation with the sectoral impact teams. Three groups will share the work under this research theme to ensure that development of the downscaler proceeds efficiently.

The objective of this research is to further improve the accuracy of assessments of climate change and adaptation measures by developing bottom-up and top-down models in the water resources sector, then making comparisons and assessments of these models and integrating them. For this purpose, a total of four subgroups―two dealing with water resources and two with water usage―are being established to realize improved accuracy of the bottom-up model, as well as one subgroup dedicated to the development of a top-down model.

The damage caused by various disaster phenomena will be quantitatively shown in the form of map information, and the economic damage will also be calculated. With the objective of proposing detailed adaptation measures corresponding to individual areas, these models will have a structure that allows information to be expressed on various scales, making investigations possible from the nationwide to the municipal level, and that also facilitates a comprehensive understanding of different disasters including bird’s-eye views of spatial information.

The objective of this research is to quantitatively assess impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in East Asia including Japan with a high level of accuracy. Based on the projection results, adaptation measures (conservation measures) for natural ecosystems against climate change will be proposed. Corresponding to the targeted regions, the research is divided into the following two areas.

Targeting the whole of Japan, climate change impacts on rice and other crops as well as adaptation measures to reduce such impacts and their effects will be regionally assessed taking uncertainty of projection into account.

The objectives of this research are to contribute to the projection of climate change impacts on human health by refining assessments of the health impacts of heat stress such as heat waves and air pollution, and to present measures for dealing with forthcoming climate change through the construction of a heat-wave warning system based on the communication of projected health risks (risk communication) and assess its effectiveness. The target of the former objective is East Asia including Japan (as well as Southeast Asia if possible), with the aim of investigating measures that will facilitate future projections at the prefectural and municipal levels in Japan through a process of refinement, and that will also facilitate projections in developing countries where it is difficult to obtain data through a process of simplification. The target of the latter objective is local governments in Japan, to be expanded to East Asia and Southeast Asia if possible.

A method for assessment of climate change impacts on arthropod vector-borne infectious diseases and waterborne infectious diseases, as well as protozoan and parasitic infectious diseases, is to be established to clarify the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases on a nationwide scale, and assessments of vulnerability and impacts at the local government level will be performed. Moreover, through technological transfers to developing countries in Asia, climate change impacts in Asia will be assessed. The objective of this research is to contribute to the formulation of adaptation policies in Japan, and to promote public understanding of climate change impacts through the dissemination of information.

The final objective of this research is to advance top-down nationwide impact assessments in relation to climate change itself as well as climate change measures (mitigation policies, adaptation policies) using a dynamic and spatial computable general equilibrium (DSCGE) model.

Utilizing the simplified method provided by Theme 1, which will make assessment of climate change impacts, etc. possible at the local level, climate change impacts on various aspects of local communities, such as ecosystems, agriculture, floods, and so on, will be comprehensively analyzed in cooperation with a number of universities and research institutions in the Kanto and Chubu regions. In particular, a model local government area will be selected as a target area to extract issues toward the establishment of methods for realizing quantitative local-scale impact and vulnerability assessments and gaining an understanding of corresponding adaptation effects. Moreover, impact risk assessments, etc. that are easy for residents to understand will be elucidated and, based on these findings, a system of adaptation measures that meets the actual conditions of the area and is acceptable to the residents will be explored and adaptation policy guidelines (plans) will be formulated. A local government consortium (information exchange and consultation organization) will be established with platform functions aimed at disseminating the results of research on climate change impacts and adaptations, information on policies related to climate change adaptations, and so on throughout the country, as well as facilitating information exchanges, in order to contribute to the enhancement of future climate change research and implementation of adaptation policies in society.

In this research, an unprecedented concept of “disaster immunocompetence” is proposed and, using this as an assessment axis, an advanced impact/adaptation assessment model that can adapt to disaster hazards during the process of and after climate change will be developed and applied to Kyushu, the region of Japan in which a subtropical climate is advancing the earliest. At the same time, through cooperation with local governments (Fukuoka City, Saga Prefecture, Okinawa Prefecture) in the Kyushu region, investigations of climate change impact assessments and adaptation measures at the local government level will be carried out.

The objectives of this research are a) elucidation of the present situation of international adaptation policies; b) development of indexes for assessing vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation effects with respect to climate change; c) necessary verification of these indexes though the implementation of case studies of the Mekong Delta and the Ganges River Basin; and d) accumulation of information and dissemination of research results through the establishment of an international network in the Asia-Pacific region, which is necessary for research, education, and policy investigations.