Research Objectives

  The damage caused by various disaster phenomena will be quantitatively shown in the form of map information, and the economic damage will also be calculated. With the objective of proposing detailed adaptation measures corresponding to individual areas, these models will have a structure that allows information to be expressed on various scales, making investigations possible from the nationwide to the municipal level, and that also facilitates a comprehensive understanding of different disasters including bird’s-eye views of spatial information.

① Estimation of nationwide flood risks and development of risk maps
  Map information and general circulation model (GCM) data will be gathered and the data formats will be unified. A multiscale model will be developed by improving the previously developed flood risk estimation model so that it can be used in multiscale applications. This model will be verified by applying it to areas vulnerable to flooding. In conjunction with this, a method allowing damage to be easily estimated in individual areas will be proposed. Moreover, by inputting the results of downscaling of torrential downpours, future flood damage will be projected in a multiscale manner. These refined and simplified models will be verified and further improved.

② Estimation of nationwide landslide disaster risks and development of risk maps
  Map information and GCM data will be gathered and the data formats will be unified. The previously developed slope failure risk estimation model will be improved so that it can be used in multiscale applications, reproducibility by this multiscale model will be confirmed, and the model will be verified. Concurrently, a chart of mathematical relations between rainfall intensity and damage will be prepared, and a method that allows damage in individual areas to be easily estimated (simplified model) will be proposed. By inputting the results of downscaling of torrential downpours, future slope disaster damage will be projected in a multiscale manner. These simplified models will be verified and improved.

③ Estimation of nationwide storm-surge disaster risks and development of risk maps
  Map information and GCM data will be gathered, and the data formats will be unified. The spatial resolution of the storm-surge disaster damage projection model will be enhanced, and the target area will be expanded to the whole country. The relationships between land use and storm-surge disasters will be analyzed to construct a damage projection model for storm-surge disasters taking land use into account, targeting certain areas. The storm-surge damage projection model taking land use into account will be expanded to the whole country to project damage from future storm-surge disasters based on downscaled meteorological data.

④ Estimation of nationwide coastal erosion risks and development of risk maps
  Data on coastal erosion conditions nationwide will be gathered, and the data formats of digital map information and these data will be unified. A regional coast/beach deformation model will also be constructed. After verification of the occurrence of sand beach retreat nationwide with field data, the model will be expanded to encompass nationwide map data. The model will be refined to a structure that takes coastal constructions into account. Nationwide sand beach erosion maps will be prepared and coastal erosion risk maps will be prepared. The refined model will verify the anti-erosion effect of constructions on the southern coast of Sendai.

⑤ Disaster analysis according to regional characteristics and proposal of adaptation measure options
  Digital map information and data on past actual disasters will be gathered to create a database so that other teams can utilize them. While expanding and improving the database, statistical analyses will be conducted to extract trends and factors such as types of disasters, areas, budgets, etc. The relationships with hazards estimated by other teams will be examined, with an emphasis on the relationships with the amount of damage. The local characteristics of adaptation options for disasters in different sectors will be examined through consultations with local governments. Adaptation measures will be verified in areas that are considered to have high disaster risks.

⑥ Development of nationwide torrential downpour disaster risk assessment support data and its analysis
  GCM data of various organizations will be gathered, and the data formats will be unified and processed so that other teams can utilize them. Statistical data on past torrential downpour disasters will be gathered. Through comparisons of the GCM and actual disaster data, trends in nationwide torrential downpour disasters will be extracted. Downscaled GCM data will also be prepared, and provided to other teams. By extracting the statistical characteristics of future torrential downpours, the return period of torrential downpours as well as variance, etc. will be examined by area.

Group members(*: Leader)

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