Research Objectives

  The objective of this research is to quantitatively assess impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in East Asia including Japan with a high level of accuracy. Based on the projection results, adaptation measures (conservation measures) for natural ecosystems against climate change will be proposed. Corresponding to the targeted regions, the research is divided into the following two areas.

Area 1: Assessment of impacts of climate change on predominant natural vegetation in Japan

  a)　In research area 1, targeting Japan, a spatial statistical model (distribution projection model) of keystone species, which play a key role in ecosystems such as those of dominant species, will be constructed using plant distribution data and environmental databases to project potential habitats. The targeted species will include Picea jezoensis (Yezo spruce), Picea jezoensis var. hondoensis (Hondo spruce), Betula ermanii (Erman’s birch), etc. in the subalpine zone; Quercus crispula (mizunara oak), Ulmus davidiana var. japonica (Japanese elm), Acer species, etc. in the cool-temperate zone; Fagus japonica (Japanese blue beech), Zelkova serrata (Japanese zelkova), Carpinus laxiflora (aka-shide hornbeam), etc. in the intermediate temperate zone; and evergreen oaks, Castanopsis (Japanese chinquapin), Machilus thunbergii (red machilus; tabu-no-ki tree), etc. in the warm-temperate zone. The following three points will be investigated to enhance the accuracy of the projection: (i) types of predictor variables to be incorporated in the model, (ii) the distribution data (number of points, spatial layout, resolution, altitude) to be used for response variables and verification, and (iii) the type of projection model; at the same time, a model incorporating shifts in distribution will be constructed. Moreover, changes in the ecosystems of keystone species accompanying climate change impacts will also be assessed.

  In research area 2, targeting East Asia, a climate change impact projection research network in East Asia is to be constructed, and climate change impacts on dominant tree species of forest ecosystems will be projected. Since very little research on the projection of climate change impacts on natural ecosystems has been conducted in Asian countries other than Japan up to now, it is hoped that the research results obtained in this project will be widely disseminated. In Taiwan, where data on vegetation have been accumulated, impact projections will be initiated with alpine and subalpine species such as those of the genera Abies (firs) and Tsuga (a genus of conifers), and vulnerability will be assessed. The results will be compared with the results for Japan where corresponding forest zones exist. Impact projections will also be conducted for tree species distributed across Japan and Taiwan to implement cross-border impact assessments of forest ecosystems. Moreover, joint research with China, South Korea, and other countries will be initiated and the construction of a network for climate change impact projection research will be promoted.

Group members (*: Leader)

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