Research Objectives

  Targeting the whole of Japan, to develop and improve an integrated assessment model in order to assess levels of impacts and effects of adaptation measures according to different climate stabilization levels and adaptation policies. Moreover, in collaboration with Theme 1(2)-(9) as well as Theme 2, to develop a simplified climate change impact estimation tool for use at the prefectural and municipal levels. Further, to support the systematization and development of methods related to climate and socioeconomic scenarios that allow climate change impacts and effects of adaptation measures to be assessed in a form that makes comparison and synthesis of each theme possible.

① Development of integrated assessment model supporting climate change impact assessment and adaptation policies
  Impact functions prepared using the advanced impact/adaptation assessment model to be developed in Theme 1(2)-(9) will be implemented in an integrated assessment model, and quantitative assessments will be made of national-level impacts under multiple climate stabilization scenarios, as well as the extent to which these impacts can be reduced by adaptation measures.
  In collaboration with Theme 1(2)-(9) as well as Theme 2, a simplified climate change impact estimation tool usable at the local government level will be developed to implement impact assessments as well as assessments of the effects of adaptation measures targeting multiple areas.
  The socioeconomic scenarios developed in ②will be implemented in the integrated assessment model, and the impacts and effects of adaptation measures under multiple climate stabilization scenarios using this model will be assessed at the national level.

② Research on development of climate and socioeconomic scenarios supporting climate change impact assessment and adaptation policies
  Existing climate scenario development methods will be systematized and assessed and a method suitable for impact assessment research at the diversified spatial scales targeted by S-8 will be proposed. The development of climate scenarios required by Theme 1(2)-(9) will also be supported. Furthermore, modules for simple climate scenario development at the prefectural and municipal levels will be prepared for implementation in a simplified climate change impact estimation tool.
  In order to prepare socioeconomic scenarios necessary for the impact/adaptation assessment model, published socioeconomic scenarios targeting Japan will be gathered and systematized. Moreover, national-level socioeconomic scenarios necessary for ①as well as for Theme 1(2)-(9) will be developed and impact assessments and the effects of adaptation measures will be investigated in collaboration with the research teams for ①as well as Theme 1(2)-(9). A method for socioeconomic scenario development at the prefectural and municipal levels will also be investigated, and scenarios will be prepared jointly with ①.
  The output of climate change experiments by innovative programs toward the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report will be gathered and systematized for common use in S-8. Moreover, climate projection information to be newly provided by climate modeling teams from various countries toward the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report will be comprehensively gathered and systematized, and incorporated into the integrated assessment model to be developed and improved in ①.

Group members (*: Leader)

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