Research Objectives

  The objectives of this research are to contribute to the projection of climate change impacts on human health by refining assessments of the health impacts of heat stress such as heat waves and air pollution, and to present measures for dealing with forthcoming climate change through the construction of a heat-wave warning system based on the communication of projected health risks (risk communication) and assess its effectiveness. The target of the former objective is East Asia including Japan (as well as Southeast Asia if possible), with the aim of investigating measures that will facilitate future projections at the prefectural and municipal levels in Japan through a process of refinement, and that will also facilitate projections in developing countries where it is difficult to obtain data through a process of simplification. The target of the latter objective is local governments in Japan, to be expanded to East Asia and Southeast Asia if possible.

① Refinement and simplification of model for climate change mortality impacts
  A prototype model incorporating delayed effects and impacts of air pollution into the assessment model will be completed. With the additional incorporation of the impacts of ozone, mentioned below, into the high-accuracy model, future projections for Japan will be implemented.
  A model that can appropriately assess the impacts of infectious diseases such as influenza will be completed. A model with more accurate estimation of excess mortality in extreme temperatures will also be completed. Weather patterns will be classified into several categories, and ozone generation in each weather pattern will be estimated using a numerical model. The classification of typical patterns will be completed, and ozone generation for each obtained pattern will be estimated. By extracting the conditions for the appearance of each weather pattern by a climate projection model, ozone generation will be projected. Expanding the target to East Asia, assessments will be conducted encompassing a broad range of latitudes including South Korea, Taiwan, etc. If possible, as a continuation of joint research being conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO), impact assessments of heat waves, etc. in Mongolia will be conducted to verify issues related to the model. In the final fiscal year, an East Asia common model will be constructed to implement future projections. Similar work will be carried out in each country/region of East Asia. In the final fiscal year, impacts of climate change in East Asia will be estimated.

② Construction of heat-wave warning system and assessment of its effectiveness and economic efficiency
  In addition to the further refinement of prevention information, while advancing negotiations with local governments, information concerning new developments overseas will be gathered to construct a system that is considered to be feasible. If possible, the awareness of elderly people with regard to health impact risks and the living environment will be investigated as pre-intervention conditions
  The constructed system will be operated with actual local governments and issues will be compiled and dealt with to improve the system so that it can be used in real local government settings. Moreover, systems for South Korea and Taiwan will be explored in cooperation with researchers there. Based on the above-mentioned assessments, the targeted area will be expanded. If possible, a follow-up survey of people of advanced age will be carried out for the purpose of monitoring risk communications,. When constructing the system described above, the structure of the system will be closely examined from the standpoint of the method of assessing effectiveness and economic efficiency in order to create a system that realizes versatile assessments of higher validity. The number of targeted local governments in Japan will be increased and the effectiveness and economic efficiency of the system will be further assessed. At the same time, its effectiveness and economic efficiency will also be assessed in South Korea and Taiwan. By comparing the assessments of each local government in Japan, requirements for further enhancing the effectiveness of the system will be explored.

Group members (*: Leader)

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