Model Analysis of Atmospheric Observations Reveals Methane Leakage in North China — findings based on Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite “IBUKI” (GOSAT) observations

Monday, November 28, 2022

Satellite Observation Center
Earth System Division
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan
 WANG Fenjuan, Research Associate
 MAKSYUTOV Shamil, Expert
 JANARDANAN Rajesh, Research Associate
 MORINO Isamu, Chief Senior Researcher
 YOSHIDA Yukio, Senior Researcher
 MATSUNAGA Tsuneo, Director

Biogeochemical Cycle Modeling and Analysis Section
Earth System Division, NIES, Japan
 ITO Akihiko, Head

Environmental Chemodynamics Section
Earth System Division, NIES, Japan
 TOHJIMA Yasunori, Head

The global production and consumption of natural gas (70%–90% methane (CH4)) have almost doubled in the last decade. In particular, the utilization of natural gas in China has increased dramatically since 2012, as the country has started transitioning away from coal to gas in order to reduce air pollution. Natural gas leaks are a large anthropogenic source of CH4, which is the second most important greenhouse gas contributor to global warming. An international research group led by Dr.Fenjuan Wang, Dr. Shamil Maksyutov and Dr. Tsuneo Matsunaga of the National Institute for Environmental Studies conducted the investigation of CH4 emissions in different regions of China from 2010 to 2018 using inverse modeling and atmospheric observations of the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite “IBUKI” (GOSAT) and surface station data from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases. The findings showed that the estimated CH4 emissions vary in different regions of China in these nine years. The year-over-year increases in CH4 emissions detected by the atmospheric observations are closely correlated to changes in natural gas use in the north region of China. In 2018, the estimated total natural gas emission in the north region were equivalent to 3.2%-5.3% of the total regional natural gas consumption. The findings of the study illustrate the urgent need for mitigation measures focused on reducing natural gas leaks from production, supply and end-use facilities during the period of pipeline expansion in China so that the country can reach its carbon-neutral goal by 2060.

This study was published in Scientific Reports on November 17, 2022.
Distributed simultaneously to the Tsukuba Science City Press Club, the Ministry of the Environment Press Club and the Environment Press Club.


Natural gas is a relatively clean burning fossil fuel, that causes less air pollution than coal and is widely used in the world. Recent studies have shown that the natural gas leaks from production, supply chain, and end-use facilities are a large source of atmospheric methane (CH4), and the leaking budget is underestimated in many places by bottom-up inventories. CH4 is the second most important greenhouse gas (GHG) contributing to global warming after carbon dioxide (CO2), with a relatively shorter lifetime, making the reduction of CH4 emission a suitable target for implementing rapid and achievable mitigation strategies of the Paris Agreement.

Over the last decade, natural gas has become the fastest-growing fossil energy source in China due to the coal-to-gas government initiative that has been implemented to reduce air pollution and CO2 emissions. Natural gas consumption has increased dramatically from 108.5 billion standard cubic meters (bcm) (4% of primary energy consumption) in 2010 to a record level of 280 bcm (7.6% of primary energy consumption) in 2018. In addition, according to China’s energy plan, the share of primary energy from gas will keep increasing and is likely to reach 15% by 2030, while coal and oil consumption will decline. From 2010 to 2018, the length of gas supply pipelines in urban areas of China increased approximately three-fold from 298 to 842 thousand kilometers. However, CH4 leakage from those pipelines has not been actively reported, and there is limited publicly available data on upstream emissions and local distribution of natural gas emissions in China.

2. Research Outline and Results

In this study, we used nine years (2010–2018) of CH4 observations by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite “IBUKI” (GOSAT) and surface station data from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) to estimate CH4 emissions in different regions of China. GOSAT observes the column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CH4 in the atmosphere, and the surface stations monitor CH4 concentrations near surface. The observation data were used for simulations by the high-resolution inverse model NTFVAR (NIES-TM-FLEXPART-variational) to infer the surface flux of CH4 emissions. Inverse modelling optimizes prior flux estimates, which are constrained so that an acceptable agreement between the simulated and observed atmospheric concentrations is achieved.

Figure 1 shows the model-estimated CH4 fluxes in four regions of China. The four regions, North China (NE), South China (SE), North-west China (NW), and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (TP), vary with respect climate, geographical features, types of agriculture, major economic activities, and CH4 emission sources. The model-estimated average CH4 emissions from the four subregions over the period 2010–2018 are 30.0±1.0 (average ± standard deviation) Tg CH4 yr-1 from the SE region, 23.3±2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1 from the NE region, 2.9±0.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 from the NW region, and 1.7±0.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 from the TP region. The trends in CH4 emissions have varied in the different regions of China over the last nine years, with significant increase trends detected in the NE region and the whole China.

Figure 1 Emission estimates for 2010–2018 in China. The four regions analyzed include North China (NE), South China (SE), North-west China (NW), and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (TP).

We focused our analysis on the NE region where natural gas production and consumption have increased dramatically and are likely one of the main contributors to the increase estimated in regional total CH4 emissions. The CH4 emissions from natural gas, including leakage from fuel extraction, processing, transport, and the end-use stage, were estimated using an approach that combined data for the province-level emissions inventory and published inverse model studies. The model-estimated total CH4 emissions and the estimated natural gas emissions both increased significantly during 2010–2018 (Figure 2). The total amount of natural gas emissions due to leakages constitutes a significant waste of energy and value. For example, in 2018, natural gas consumption in the NE region was 101.5 bcm and the estimated total natural gas emissions were 3.2%–5.3% of regional consumption.

Figure 2 Model-estimated total CH4 emissions (the solid orange line shows the estimation and the range of uncertainty is shown by orange shading) and estimated natural gas (NG) CH4 emissions (upper and lower range in blue) in the NE region during 2010–2018.

Figure 3 shows the changes in estimated CH4 emissions from natural gas and the model-estimated total CH4 emissions for 2010-2018 compared to previous years in the NE region. The year-over-year change in the model-estimated total CH4 emission closely follows the changes in CH4 emissions from natural gas. In January 2016, record cold wave hit the region causing a sudden increase in natural gas use, and natural gas suppliers recorded an increase in natural gas loss (i.e., the difference between the amount of gas purchased and the amount of gas sold). Simultaneously, the atmospheric observations also captured the emission changes, as reflected in our inverse estimates (Figure 3). The analysis shows a strong correlation between trends in natural gas use and the increase in the atmospheric CH4 concentration over the NE region, which is indicative the ability of GOSAT to monitor variations in regional anthropogenic sources.

Figure 3 Changes in estimated CH4 emissions from natural gas (NG) (upper and lower range in blue) and model-estimated total CH4 emissions (orange) compared to previous years in the NE region.

3. Future Perspectives

The findings of our study highlight that the increase in natural gas use threatens China’s carbon reduction efforts. The increase in CH4 leaks from natural gas production and the supply chain will adversely affect the interests of diverse stakeholders, despite the introduction of carbon reduction measures. Given that the large natural gas distribution pipelines span more than 900 thousand kilometers in China, natural gas leaks constitute a significant waste of energy and value. The year-over-year changes in regional emissions and trends were detected by satellite and surface observations in this study. In the future, additional observations using high-resolution satellites will help to more accurately quantify emissions and provide scientific directions for emission reduction measures. There is also a need to further detect and locate such leaks using advanced mobile platforms in order to effectively mitigate CH4 emissions in China and bring about economic, environmental, and health benefits.

4. Publication and Data Availability

Fenjuan Wang, Shamil Maksyutov, Rajesh Janardanan, Aki Tsuruta, Akihiko Ito, Isamu Morino, Yukio Yoshida, Yasunori Tohjima, Johannes W. Kaiser, Xin Lan, Yong Zhang, Ivan Mammarella, Jost V. Lavric and Tsuneo Matsunaga. Atmospheric Observations Suggest Methane Emissions in North-east China Growing with Natural Gas Use, Scientific Reports, 12, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-19462-4.

GOSAT data used in this study are available from the GOSAT Data Archive Service https://data2.gosat.nies.go.jp/index_en.html
In-situ methane observation data are archived on the WDCGG Global Network: https://gaw.kishou.go.jp/
Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) emission inventories are available for download at
Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) fire emissions Database are from
Wetland emission by Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT) model are available at
The NIES airborne and Japan-Russia Siberian Tall Tower Inland Observation network (JR STATION) data are available at
The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) data from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) are available at

5. Acknowledgements

The GOSAT series is a joint effort of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MOE), the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES).

This study was supported by the NIES GOSAT and GOSAT-2 projects and benefitted from support for surface-based observations by numerous funding agencies. The computational resources were provided by NIES. And the meteorological data were obtained from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA).

6. Contacts

[Contact for this research]
Fenjuan Wang, Research Associate
Satellite Observation Center
Earth System Division
National Institute for Environmental Studies

[Contact for this press release]
Public Relations Office, Planning Division
National Institute for Environmental Studies
E-mail: kouhou0 (please append ‘@nies.go.jp’ to complete the e-mail address)

7. Supplementary Information

Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite “IBUKI” (GOSAT)

The Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite "IBUKI" (GOSAT) is the world’s first spacecraft to monitor the concentrations of the two major GHGs CO2 and CH4 from space. NIES has promoted the GOSAT series projects for GHG observation from space, together with MOE and JAXA. GOSAT (IBUKI) is the first satellite in the series and has been observing column-averaged concentrations of CO2 and CH4 for more than 13 years since its launch in 2009. The second satellite, GOSAT-2 (IBUKI-2) was launched in 2018 and started observing carbon monoxide in addition to CO2 and CH4. Furthermore, the third satellite, Global Observing SATellite for Greenhouse gases and Water cycle (GOSAT-GW) is under development and due for launch in Japanese fiscal year 2023.

The Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is the first-ever universal legally binding international treaty on climate change, that was adopted by 196 parties at the 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris, France in December 2015. The agreement sets a long-term temperature goal to keep the rise in mean global temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably limit the increase to 1.5°C. For the successful completion of this goal, countries will undertake ambitious efforts to reach the global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate-neutral world by the middle of the century.

(Read more at https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement)

Lifetime of methane in the atmosphere

Methane is the second most important well-mixed GHG contributing to human-induced climate change after CO2. The lifetime of CH4 in the atmosphere refers to the time that CH4 stays in the air after being emitted from a variety of sources. CH4 is removed from the atmosphere mostly by chemical reactions. The atmospheric lifetime of CH4 is 10 ± 2 years, which is relatively shorter than that of CO2 (approximately 5 to 200 years) (IPCC, 2013).

Methane emission sources

Methane is emitted from a variety of anthropogenic and natural sources. Approximately 60% of all CH4 emissions come from anthropogenic sources, such as agricultural activities, waste treatment, oil and natural gas systems, coal mining, stationary and mobile combustion, and certain industrial processes. Natural emissions include wetlands, freshwater bodies such as lakes and rivers, and geological sources such as terrestrial and marine seeps and volcanoes. Other smaller sources include ruminant wild animals, termites, hydrates and permafrost. (Read more at https://www.globalcarbonproject.org)

Underestimation of methane emissions from oil and gas using bottom-up inventories

Methane can leak into the atmosphere from upstream/downstream natural gas operations (i.e., extraction and gathering, processing, transmission and storage, and distribution) and end-use combustion. Atmospheric measurement studies have shown that a large amount of CH4 emissions from oil and gas production are unaccounted for in bottom-up inventories. Using high-resolution satellite observations, Zhang et al.(2020) estimated a leakage equivalent to 3.7% (~60% higher than the national average leakage rate) of all the gas extracted from the largest oil-producing basin in the United States. Chan et al.(2020) reported eight-year estimates of CH4 emissions from oil and gas operations in western Canada and found that they were nearly twice that from inventories. Weller et al. (2020) used an advanced mobile leak detection (AMLD) platform combined with GIS information of utility pipelines to estimate CH4 leakage from pipelines of local distribution systems in the United States. They found that the leakage from those pipelines was approximately five times greater than that reported in inventories compiled based on self-reported utility leakage data.

High-resolution inverse model NIES-TM-FLEXPART-variational (NTFVAR)

Inverse modeling is an important and essential method for estimating GHGs emissions. The model uses atmospheric observation data as a controller in atmospheric models to optimize bottom-up emission inventories (prior fluxes).

The NIES-TM-FLEXPART-variational (NTFVAR) global inverse model was developed by Dr.Shamil Maksyutov’s group at NIES. NTFVAR is combined with a joint Eulerian three-dimensional transport model, the National Institute for Environmental Studies Transport Model (NIES-TM) v08.1i, and a Lagrangian model, the FLEXPART model v.8.0. The transport model is driven by JRA-55 meteorological data from JMA. The prior fluxes include gridded anthropogenic emissions from the EDGAR database, such as energy, agriculture, waste and other sectors; wetland emissions estimated by the Wetland emission by the VISIT model; biomass burning emissions estimated by GFAS; and climatological emissions from oceanic, geological, and termite sources. The inverse modeling problem is formulated and solved to find the optimal value of corrections to prior fluxes minimizing mismatches between observations and modelled concentrations. Variational optimization is applied to obtain flux corrections to vary prior uncertainty fields at a resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° with bi-weekly time steps. A variational inversion scheme is combined with the high-resolution variant of the transport model and its adjoint described by Maksyutov et al. (2021).


Chan, E. et al. Eight-Year Estimates of Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Operations in Western Canada Are Nearly Twice Those Reported in Inventories. Environmental Science & Technology 54, 14899-14909, doi:10.1021/acs.est.0c04117 (2020).

IPCC 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Stocker, T. F. Q. et al.]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Maksyutov, S. et al. Technical note: A high-resolution inverse modelling technique for estimating surface CO2 fluxes based on the NIES-TM - FLEXPART coupled transport model and its adjoint. Atmospheric Chemistry Physics 21, 1245–1266 doi:10.5194/acp-21-1245-2021(2021).

Weller, Z., Hamburg, S. & von Fischer, J. A National Estimate of Methane Leakage from Pipeline Mains in Natural Gas Local Distribution Systems. Environmental Science & Technology 54, 8958-8967, doi:10.1021/acs.est.0c00437 (2020).

Zhang, Y. et al. Quantifying methane emissions from the largest oil-producing basin in the United States from space. Science Advances 6, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaz5120 (2020).