Projected high-resolution hourly wet-bulb globe temperature, population heat exposure, and adaptation costs in Japan

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This dataset provides high-resolution (1 km grid), hourly projections of wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) across Japan for two future periods: 2030–2059 and 2060–2089. Based on these projections, we calculated two heat risk indicators:
(1) the at-risk elderly population (AREP), defined as the number of people aged ≥65 exposed to WBGT values exceeding either a fixed threshold (33 °C) or the alternative heatstroke alert criteria (AHAC), which account for region- and age-specific heat acclimatization;
(2) the potential cumulative exposure (PCE), expressed in person-hours, representing the total exposure of AREP to WBGT above the thresholds.
The dataset also includes annual estimates of adaptation costs, taking into account expenses for residential air-conditioner installation and electricity subsidies. An additional case incorporates the availability of cooling shelters, based on municipal-level data published as of February 2025. WBGT projections are based on the Bias corrected climate scenarios over Japan based on CDFDM method using CMIP6 (NIES2020). The dataset covers four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and five global climate models (GCMs). See the README file for details on contents.

Description

Creator
Release date
2025/07/18
Temporal coverage
Historical: 1980-2014 (35-year average) Future: 2030-2059, 2060-2089 (30-year average)
Data provider
NIES
Email: cgerdb_admin(at)nies.go.jp
DOI
File format
HDF5, csv
Data volume
120GB
Version
ver. 1.0 (Last updated: 2025/07/18)
Language
English

Data Set

Parameters
Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), at-risk elderly population (AREP), potential cumulative exposure (PCE), cost (in millions of USD, with an assumed exchange rate of 150 yen to 1 USD).
Domain
Natural Science
Keywords
[Free keywords]
Heat-related illness, climate change, elderly population, heat exposure, spatial analysis, machine learning
Update history
[2025/07/18]
Data are released. ver. 1.0.

Contributors

Data Manager
Contributors
Jun'ya Takakura*1
    Researcher
Noriko N. Ishizaki*2
    Researcher
    DataCurator
Kazutaka Oka*2
    Researcher
    DataCurator
Yoshufumi Masago*2
    Researcher
    Sponsor
    Supervisor
*1 Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
*2 Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

References Information

Supplementary Materials
References
Ishizaki, N. N., 2021: Bias corrected climate scenarios over Japan based on CDFDM method using CMIP6 (NIES2020), Ver.1.2, NIES, doi:10.17595/20210501.001.
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2021. Population scenarios by shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) in Japan (version 2), https://adaptation-platform.nies.go.jp/data/socioeconomic/.
Takahiro Oyama et al. 2025. Heat impacts on school sports club activities in Japan under climate change and the effectiveness of countermeasures. Environ. Res.: Health 3 025008, doi:10.1088/2752-5309/adbb11.
Kazutaka Oka et al. 2023. Launching criteria of 'Heatstroke Alert' in Japan according to regionality and age group. Environ. Res. Commun. 5 025002, doi:10.1088/2515-7620/acac03.

Fund Information

Funder
Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency
Grant number
JPMEERF25S12430

Terms and Conditions of Use*

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License
Citation format
When this data set is referred to in publications, it should, as a general rule, be made in the following format.
Takahiro Oyama et al. (2025), Projected high-resolution hourly wet-bulb globe temperature, population heat exposure, and adaptation costs in Japan, ver. x.x*1, NIES,
DOI:10.17595/20250718.001. (Reference date*2: YYYY/MM/DD)
*1 The version number is indicated in the name of each data file.
*2 As the reference date, please indicate the date you downloaded the files.