Projected high-resolution hourly wet-bulb globe temperature, population heat exposure, and adaptation costs in Japan
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This dataset provides high-resolution (1 km grid), hourly projections of wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) across Japan for two future periods: 2030–2059 and 2060–2089. Based on these projections, we calculated two heat risk indicators:
(1) the at-risk elderly population (AREP), defined as the number of people aged ≥65 exposed to WBGT values exceeding either a fixed threshold (33 °C) or the alternative heatstroke alert criteria (AHAC), which account for region- and age-specific heat acclimatization;
(2) the potential cumulative exposure (PCE), expressed in person-hours, representing the total exposure of AREP to WBGT above the thresholds.
The dataset also includes annual estimates of adaptation costs, taking into account expenses for residential air-conditioner installation and electricity subsidies. An additional case incorporates the availability of cooling shelters, based on municipal-level data published as of February 2025. WBGT projections are based on the Bias corrected climate scenarios over Japan based on CDFDM method using CMIP6 (NIES2020). The dataset covers four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and five global climate models (GCMs). See the README file for details on contents.
Description
Creator
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Release date
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2025/07/18
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Temporal coverage
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Historical: 1980-2014 (35-year average) Future: 2030-2059, 2060-2089 (30-year average)
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Data provider
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NIES
Email: cgerdb_admin(at)nies.go.jp |
DOI
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File format
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HDF5, csv
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Data volume
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120GB
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Version
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ver. 1.0 (Last updated: 2025/07/18)
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Language
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English
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Data Set
Parameters
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Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), at-risk elderly population (AREP), potential cumulative exposure (PCE), cost (in millions of USD, with an assumed exchange rate of 150 yen to 1 USD).
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Domain
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Natural Science
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Keywords
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[Free keywords]
Heat-related illness, climate change, elderly population, heat exposure, spatial analysis, machine learning
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Update history
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[2025/07/18]
Data are released. ver. 1.0.
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Contributors
Data Manager
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Contributors
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Jun'ya Takakura*1
Researcher Noriko N. Ishizaki*2 Researcher DataCurator Kazutaka Oka*2 Researcher DataCurator Yoshufumi Masago*2 Researcher Sponsor Supervisor *1 Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) *2 Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) |
References Information
Supplementary Materials
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References
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Ishizaki, N. N., 2021: Bias corrected climate scenarios over Japan based on CDFDM method using CMIP6 (NIES2020), Ver.1.2, NIES, doi:10.17595/20210501.001.
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2021. Population scenarios by shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) in Japan (version 2), https://adaptation-platform.nies.go.jp/data/socioeconomic/.
Takahiro Oyama et al. 2025. Heat impacts on school sports club activities in Japan under climate change and the effectiveness of countermeasures. Environ. Res.: Health 3 025008, doi:10.1088/2752-5309/adbb11.
Kazutaka Oka et al. 2023. Launching criteria of 'Heatstroke Alert' in Japan according to regionality and age group. Environ. Res. Commun. 5 025002, doi:10.1088/2515-7620/acac03.
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Fund Information
Funder
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Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency
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Grant number
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JPMEERF25S12430
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Terms and Conditions of Use*
*By accessing or using the Service you agree to be bound by these Terms. If you disagree with any part of the terms then you may not access the Service.
License
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Citation format
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When this data set is referred to in publications, it should, as a general rule, be made in the following format.
Takahiro Oyama et al. (2025), Projected high-resolution hourly wet-bulb globe temperature, population heat exposure, and adaptation costs in Japan, ver. x.x*1, NIES,
DOI:10.17595/20250718.001. (Reference date*2: YYYY/MM/DD) *1 The version number is indicated in the name of each data file. *2 As the reference date, please indicate the date you downloaded the files. |