Research Objectives

  In this research, an unprecedented concept of “disaster immunocompetence” is proposed and, using this as an assessment axis, an advanced impact/adaptation assessment model that can adapt to disaster hazards during the process of and after climate change will be developed and applied to Kyushu, the region of Japan in which a subtropical climate is advancing the earliest. At the same time, through cooperation with local governments (Fukuoka City, Saga Prefecture, Okinawa Prefecture) in the Kyushu region, investigations of climate change impact assessments and adaptation measures at the local government level will be carried out.

a) Extraction of disaster-immunocompetence factors and their systematization
  Meteorological data as well as disaster prevention infrastructure, social infrastructure data, etc. in each local area will be gathered and analyzed to extract factors related to disaster immunocompetence. A method for their quantitative assessment will also be investigated. In cooperation with the targeted local governments, issues toward the formulation of climate change adaptation measures will be clarified. By integrating the results obtained, an advanced climate change impact/adaptation assessment model will be constructed, and climate change impact assessments and adaptation measures by local governments in the Kyushu region will be investigated

b) Development of method for predicting sudden localized torrential downpours
  In order to assess changes in urban heat environments that are considered to exert an effect on sudden localized torrential downpours, long-term simultaneous multipoint observations will be carried out in the Fukuoka metropolitan area, and changes in the heat environment due to urban development will be assessed by comparing past observation data.
  Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model and the Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS), case studies of sudden localized torrential downpours that have caused major disasters up to now will be conducted to clarify the mechanisms of occurrence of sudden localized torrential downpours and their characteristics.
  Sensitivity analysis by virtually altering urban scales, etc. will be implemented to estimate the impacts of changes in the urban heat environment on the frequency of occurrence of sudden localized torrential downpours, etc. Moreover, analysis of projections of urban rainfall disasters accompanying increased frequency of sudden localized torrential downpours will be performed

c) Development of high-accuracy estimation model for typhoons and storm surges
  Targeting the coast of Saga Prefecture in the inner part of Ariake Bay, a coastal zone with high disaster risks will be elucidated in cooperation with local governments, and ocean wave and tide level observations in the typhoon season will be carried out. In addition, the sea surface drag coefficient, which greatly affects the accuracy of calculation of ocean waves and storm surges, will be reinvestigated from the results of the ocean wave observations. Based on these findings, a high-accuracy ocean wave and storm surge estimation model will be constructed and assessment of disaster vulnerability on the coast of Saga Prefecture in the inner part of Ariake Bay, as well as adaptation measures at the local government level, will be investigated.

d) Development of methods of slope stabilization and their assessment
  The actual conditions and damage situation of slope failures accompanying changes in rainfall characteristics due to climate change, including runoff of red soil, etc. in Okinawa Prefecture, will be investigated and analyzed, and the vulnerability of the areas concerned will be assessed in cooperation with the relevant local government. Based on these findings, the mechanisms of slope failure and red soil runoff due to rainfall will be elucidated, a projection model for such disasters will be constructed, and verification experiments will be implemented in collaboration with the local government. From the findings obtained, a model for assessing the impacts of climate change on slope failure and erosion will be constructed, and measures appropriate for local governments will be investigated from the standpoints of both “software” and “hardware.”

e) Development of technologies applicable to river disaster adaptation measures
  The flood control functions of cascade type flood detention facilities including a small-scale dispersion type will be quantitatively assessed. The cushioning effect of cascade type flood detention facilities against bore floods in downstream areas caused by the collapse of a natural sediment dam, etc. will be quantitatively assessed. Based on these findings, countermeasures against the collapse of natural sediment dams in Kyushu will be investigated taking climate change into account, in cooperation with local governments, etc.

f) Development of technologies applicable to urban disaster adaptation measures
  Areas vulnerable to flood disasters in the Fukuoka metropolitan area will be elucidated in cooperation with the local government. The vulnerability of automobiles to flowing water will be verified through experiments using a model in the shape of a typical automobile. Moreover, the relationship between flow velocity and water depth when an automobile is washed away will be quantitatively assessed. A flood analysis model for projecting areas vulnerable to flood disasters will also be constructed. The vulnerability of automobiles to flowing water will be verified using real automobiles, and improvement of citizens’ ability to recognize risks will be promoted. Further, adaptation measures to improve disaster immunocompetence in the metropolitan area will be investigated in cooperation with the local governments.

Group members (*: Leader)

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