Research Objectives

  Targeting the whole of Japan, climate change impacts on rice and other crops as well as adaptation measures to reduce such impacts and their effects will be regionally assessed taking uncertainty of projection into account.

① Impacts of climate change on production of rice and other cereals in Japan and adaptation measures
  Detailed statistical data on rice production by area, and data on paddy water usage and water management as well as high-resolution meteorological mesh data and land use data, will be systematized. Research will also be conducted on past models for crops other than rice.
  Prototype impact assessment models targeted at the production of rice and other crops will be constructed based on meteorological data, agricultural statistics, and geographical information data. Test runs of each model will be carried out and the models will be improved based on the verification results in order to enhance the accuracy of estimations.
  In cooperation with research topic ③, using a further refined assessment method taking uncertainty of multiple climate model projections into account, the effects will be assessed when regional and stochastic projections of impacts on cereal production and measures to reduce such impacts are implemented.

② Range of shift in areas suitable for fruit tree cultivation in Japan due to climate change and assessment of adaptation technologies
  Based on past results, a prototype suitable cultivation area shift model taking uncertainty into account will be constructed targeting the main types of fruit trees in Japan.
  Information on climate change adaptation technologies will be gathered, their effects will be quantified by cultivation experiments, and a suitable cultivation area shift model will be constructed taking uncertainty of climate model projections into account.
  In cooperation with research topic ③, disparities in impact projection results will be clarified using multiple climate change projection values. This will provide useful findings taking uncertainty of projections into account when calculating the cost-effectiveness of adaptation technologies for reducing the impacts of climate change on fruit trees.

③Impacts on agriculture taking uncertainty into account and assessment of adaptation measures
  Using the past method incorporating uncertainty, impacts will be assessed targeting crops for which impact assessments taking uncertainty into account have not yet been conducted.
  In addition to developing and establishing a method for reducing uncertainty in impact projections, an uncertainty reduction method based on analysis of factors of uncertainty in crop models will be developed, and designs of crop experiments for the reduction of uncertainty, etc. will be proposed. Actual impact assessments will also be implemented using the newly developed uncertainty reduction method.
  After taking uncertainty into account with the advanced models developed in research topics ① and ②, the newly developed uncertainty reduction method will be used to assess the effects of various adaption measures and appropriate adaptation measures will be investigated.

Group members(*: Leader)

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