Home> Research Results

Announcements of research results

May 29, 2009: Press release
Global Warming Impacts on Japan - Long-Term Climate Stabilization Levels and Impact Risk Assessment -

The Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts is a Strategic R&D Area Project of the Global Environment Research Fund, which is a competitive research fund administered by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. The results of studies conducted under this project have shown that in Japan as well, greater impacts of global warming are expected in the future in a broad range of fields related to people's lives, whereas if a significant cut in global GHG emissions is achieved, the damage to Japan is also expected to be reduced to a considerable extent. However, even when the GHG concentration is stabilized at 450 ppm, the occurrence of a certain amount of damage is unavoidable. These results provide comprehensive findings concerning the impacts on and costs of damage in Japan according to the climate stabilization level.

This report was compiled by the Project Team for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts (with 14 institutions participating including Ibaraki University, the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, the National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, and the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute). It is a detailed version of the research that was reported at the 7th Meeting of the Medium-Term Target Study Committee, an informal meeting on the global warming issue hosted by the Cabinet Secretariat on April 14.

Main points of report

  • Targeting mainly Japan, climate change impacts have been quantitatively assessed in terms of eight indexes: (1) flooded area and cost of damage due to floods; (2) probability of slope failure and cost of damage due to landslide disasters; (3) impacts on suitable habitats for Fagus crenata (Siebold's beech) forests and cost of damage; (4) expansion of areas at risk of pine wilt; (5) impacts on rice yield; (6) expansion of area of sand beach loss and cost of damage; (7) expansion of area of storm-surge flooding, affected populations, and cost of damage; and (8) heat stress mortality risk and cost of damage.
  • With regard to (1), increases in flooded area and cost of damage are expected due to increases in rainfall intensity and the frequency of rainfall with strong intensity. Even in the case of the strictest stabilization level, damage is expected to significantly increase.
  • With regard to (2), similarly to floods, changes in the intensity and frequency of rainfall will have significant impacts. The lower the stabilization level, the lower the impact will be. In the case of the strictest stabilization level, the probability of slope failure and the cost of damage may reach a ceiling.
  • With regard to (3), suitable habitats for F. crenata forests are disappearing accompanying the progress of global warming. Although the rate of decrease is expected to be slower in the case of the strictest stabilization level, a certain extent of decrease and cost of damage is considered to be unavoidable.
  • With regard to (4), areas at risk of pine wilt will expand accompanying the progress of global warming. Although a certain extent of damage is unavoidable, its expansion is expected to be slowed in the case of the strictest stabilization level.
  • With regard to (5), increases in yield can be expected due to global warming, but this trend is expected to reach a ceiling at a certain level of temperature rise.
  • With regard to (6), the sea level rise accompanying the progress of global warming will not stop during this century even in the case of the strictest stabilization level, with the result that loss of sand beaches and increases in the cost of damage are expected to continue.
  • With regard to (7), since the rise in sea level accompanying global warming will continue for a long period, damage is expected to increase over the long term even in the case of the strictest stabilization level.
  • With regard to (8), heat stress mortality risk will increase with the progress of global warming. In the case of the strictest stabilization level, the rate of increase in risk and cost of damage are expected to become lower toward the end of the century.

Appended materials

  • Appended material 1
    "Outline of Report on Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts (2009 version)"
    (PDF: 706 KB)
  • Appended material 2
    Report on Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts: "Global Warming Impacts on Japan - Long-Term Climate Stabilization Levels and Impact Risk Assessment -"  (PDF: 1.9 MB)

April 14, 2009: Announcement of research results
Costs of Damage when No Measures against Global Warming Are Taken by the World

The Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts is a Strategic R&D Area Project of the Global Environment Research Fund, which is a competitive research fund administered by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. The project was inaugurated in fiscal 2005, and its second-half research period (two years) started in fiscal 2008. Some of the project's research results were reported to a discussion meeting on the global warming issue held by the Medium-Term Target Study Committee dealing with one of the Committee's study themes, "Costs When No Measures Are Taken." This report was compiled by the Project Team for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts (with 14 institutions participating including Ibaraki University, the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, the National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, and the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute).

Main points of report

  • According to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), impacts accompanying the increase in global mean temperature are projected to become serious in a wide range of fields including water, ecosystems, food, coastal zones, and health.
  • Existing reports targeting the whole world estimate that, under scenarios projecting an increase in mean temperature of 3.1 to 4.3℃ by the end of the 21st century without any measures being taken by the world, damage equivalent to 0.9 to 3% of global GDP could occur.
  • In Japan as well, even greater impacts of global warming are expected in the future in a broad range of fields related to people's lives. If a significant cut in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is achieved, the damage to Japan is also expected to be reduced to a considerable extent. However, even when the GHG concentration is stabilized at 450 ppm, the occurrence of a certain amount of damage is unavoidable.

Appended material

Related information

7th Meeting of the Medium-Term Target Study Committee (on website of Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet - in Japanese)

May 29, 2008: Press release
Global Warming Impacts on Japan - Latest Scientific Findings -

The Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts is a Strategic R&D Area Project of the Global Environment Research Fund, which is a competitive research fund administered by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. The project was inaugurated in fiscal 2005, and with the completion of its first-half research period (three years) in fiscal 2007, the results obtained so far are now being released. In the first part of the research term, targeting the period up to the end of the present century while focusing on the period up to around 2050, we have made projections of climate change impacts on Japan as well as economic assessments in key fields such as water resources, forests, agriculture, coastal zones, and human health. We have also developed an integrated assessment model in order to comprehensively analyze and assess the impacts and risks. In this research, we have conducted quantitative studies to elucidate the levels and regional distributions of impacts occurring in Japan as well as their rate of appearance in Japan. The results of these studies reveal that although the level of impact and rate of increase vary according to the field, severe impacts will also appear in Japan even with a relatively low temperature rise, and that while impacts will vary by region, there are especially vulnerable regions for each field. These results provide the latest comprehensive findings concerning the dangerous level of global warming not only for Japan but globally as well. This report was compiled by the Project Team for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts (with 14 institutions participating including Ibaraki University, the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, the National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, and the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute).

Main points of report

  • Targeting mainly Japan, various methods to quantitatively assess physical impacts and economic impacts have been developed. Using these, a number of risk maps have been presented showing the regional distribution of climate change impacts on five fields: water resources, forests, agriculture, coastal zones, and human health. By mid-century, a wide range of impacts will appear in these fields including increases in flood and landslide disasters, northward migration and decline of forests, impacts on rice production, increases in storm surge disasters as well as the risk of liquefaction in coastal zones, increases in the number of heatstroke cases, and increases in the potential risk of infectious diseases. Moreover, while there are regional differences, some of the impacts will be extremely severe when the country is examined as a whole.
  • Climate change impact functions elucidating the relationships between temperature rise and the concurrent levels of impact have been developed and utilized to comprehensively study how the impacts on Japan will intensify under a climate scenario in which global warming progresses up to 2100. The results show that even with a relatively low temperature rise, severe impacts will also appear in Japan.
  • Impacts of climate change have been appearing in various fields in recent years, and in order to control such adverse impacts as revealed by the report, the immediate planning of appropriate adaptation measures is essential. Therefore, approaches toward necessary adaptation measures and the direction of measures to be taken in each field have been consolidated.

Appended materials

  • (Revised versions, August 15, 2008)
  • Appended material 1: "Outline of Report on Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts" (PDF: 776 KB)
  • Appended material 2: Report on Project for Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change Impacts: "Global Warming Impacts on Japan - Latest Scientific Findings -" (PDF: 6.2 MB)