Dong L.(Dong Liang), Fujita T.(藤田壮)
, Dai M.学会等名称 :
MFA-ConAccount Section Conference 2012,“Socio-Economic Metabolism”, Darmstadt, Germany (2012)予稿集名 :
Urban energy management is important to China’s sustainable development and in this beginning of national twelfth-five planning period (from 2011 to 2015), China has implemented energy conservation planning in a number of cities, in the purpose of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP for a certain cap to meet its GHGs emissions reduction target. The planning is made based on a top-down approach, which allocate the reduction target from the national wide to the sector, then to industry and finally to the company, usually neglecting the real condition and the interconnection among different industries, as well as the linkage of reduction target and local economy. This paper studied on how Materials Flow Analysis and Input-Output model could be applied into Chinese urban energy planning and CO2 reduction policy, and an emperical study was taken in Liuzhou city, a heavy industries center in Guangxi province, China. Based on the urban-level energy flow analysis, city energy balance table and 2007 provincial monetary input-output table, complemented by survey on key industries, we proposed a hybrid energy input-output model in 2009 fit to local industrial characteristics, with 24 economic sectors, 10 categories of energy resources and one category of waste and emissions, which was CO2 emissions. Then the established model was used to identify the key sectors from both direct and indirect perspectives, eight industries were identified as key sectors need to implement the energy conservation planning in priority, including Iron and steel industry, cement and construction materials industry, chemical industry, power generation industry, sugar industry, pulp and paper industry, non-ferros metal industry, machinery manufacturing industry, and automation manufacturing industry. Furthermore, with year 2009 as BAU level, scenario analysis based on year 2015 urban energy planning target was made through the model, simulation results showed that under the target of urban-level energy intensity reduced by 20%, and GDP increased doubled by 2015, the eight main industries would reduce their energy intensity by 20%, 20%, 15%, 25%, 25%, 25%, 30% and 30%, respectively. Totalurban energy demand would amount to 29.5 million tons coal equivalent. Meanwhile, how the optimization of energy mix of the key industries and industrial structure adjustment would further affect the CO2 emissions reduction was discussed with the model. Finally, to realize the urban target, an inventory of key low-carbon technologies and fiscal policy were proposed, and policy implications of results and future work were discussed.