2016-1-29

Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment

Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Takahashi, K., Yokohata, T., Masui, T.

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Economic implications of climate change impacts on human health through undernourishment

Author:Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S., Takahashi, K., Yokohata, T., Masui, T.
Title of Journal:Climatic Change, Volume 136, Issue 2, pp 189–202, DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1606-4 (2016)

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Abstract

This study quantified the impacts of climate change on human health through undernourishment using two economic measures. First, changes in morbidity and mortality due to nine diseases caused by being underweight as a child were analyzed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with changes in the labor force, population, and demands for healthcare taken into consideration. Second, changes in mortality were taken from the CGE simulation and assessed economically by the value of lives lost and willingness to pay to reduce the risk. Model uncertainties in future crop yields and climate conditions were considered using future projections from six global crop models and five global climate models. We found that the economic valuation of healthy lives lost due to undernourishment under climate change was equivalent to −0.4 % to 0.0 % of global gross domestic product (GDP) and was regionally heterogeneous, ranging from −4.0 % to 0.0 % of regional GDP in 2100. In contrast, the actual economic losses associated with the effects of additional health expenditure and the decrease in the labor force due to undernourishment resulting from climate change corresponded to a − 0.1 % to 0.0 % change in GDP and a − 0.2 % to 0.0 % change in household consumption, respectively, at the global level.

The impact of climate change on mean food calorie intake, population at risk of hunger, DALY per 1000 persons, and DALY under different socioeconomic scenarios (It should be noted that the scenarios developed in this article differ from the final products of the SSPs, which are forthcoming. Please see the forthcoming special issues for the final scenarios of the SSPs.). The black line shows the level with no climate change. The ranges show the uncertainty of global crop models and global climate models from the highest to the lowest values